Researchers say the analysis was intended to more precisely gauge the ecological consequences of climate change. Studies have already estimated that species such as butterflies are creeping toward the poles at a rate of six kilometers per decade as temperatures rise. Some species, however, may not be able to keep pace with future changes potentially leading to new regional ecosystems as novel climate patterns emerge, possibly leading to extinctions if some climates disappear entirely.
They found that the business-as-usual scenario comes with large climate changes the world over and would create entirely new patterns of temperature and precipitation for 12 to 39 percent of Earth’s land area. An additional 10 to 48 percent of land would see its climate zones disappear, replaced by patterns of temperature and precipitation now occurring elsewhere, such as rain forest becoming savanna or evergreen forest becoming deciduous. In the reduced-emissions scenario, the group reports that the two kinds of change would each take hold over 4 to 20 percent of land.
